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It is not uncommon that one or a few variables dominate the integration error. This typically happens if they have fast dynamics, such as because of low storage capacity or fast changing input. For the cooling tower, this can be the water mass flow rate and water temperature that flows through the tower, or the outdoor temperature but the latter only changes hourly. If these inputs change faster than you expect, it may indicate a controller that can be tuned better, such as the controller of a chiller that is connected to the cooling tower, or the controller of the condenser water pump (or condenser water valve if present).