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It’s a rare modeler who actually investigates the characteristics of part load curves. Good for you to have considered that. Chillers can be designed and selected for operation at very cold temperatures, and you need to find or create curves which represent that operation. I suppose you could continue using the hypothetical curve set, since it allows operation at low temperatures, but it may be better to get data for a real chiller which is designed to operate at those temperatures.

ps, you might consider adding a dry cooler which operates (only) at outdoor temperature below ~0C. pps, Since your chilled water will actually be a glycol solution in order to operate at hose temperatures, you should consider making your fluid a glycol concentration instead of standard water.