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The rate of change in zone temperature is a function of the heating capacity and zone load. On the peak heating day the capacity and load should be similar (at the peak hour). Run this scenario for the design day. Then compare the heating capacity to the zone load. You are showing only zone temperature. Also look at heating capacity and zone predicted load to heating setpoint (see rdd file). The heating capacity may be oversized, if so, then make sure the Tstat temp during the winter design day is constant at 21C. Also use a load averaging window of, say, 2 hours.

Sizing:Parameters,
  1.2,                     !- Heating Sizing Factor
  1.2,                     !- Cooling Sizing Factor
  8;                        !- Timesteps in Averaging Window

You can also look in the eplusout.zsz file and see the heating loads during the peak heating day for comparison.

The rate of change in zone temperature is a function of the heating capacity and zone load. On the peak heating day the capacity and load should be similar (at the peak hour). Run this scenario for the design day. Then compare the heating capacity to the zone load. You are showing only zone temperature. Also look at heating capacity and zone predicted load to heating setpoint (see rdd file). The heating capacity may be oversized, if so, then make sure the Tstat temp during the winter design day is constant at 21C. Also use a load averaging window of, say, 2 hours.

Sizing:Parameters,
  1.2,                     !- Heating Sizing Factor
  1.2,                     !- Cooling Sizing Factor
  8;                        !- Timesteps in Averaging Window

You can also look in the eplusout.zsz epluszsz.csv (zone loads) and eplusssz,csv (system loads) file and see the heating loads during the peak heating day for comparison.