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For Ideal Air Loads runs in OpenStudio outdoor air isn't included which will impact the heating and cooling loads vs. running with a full system. The first thought about differences between Trace results and your OpenStudio run with the full system could be a change in the Cooling sizing factor. By default OpenStudio uses 1.25 for heating sizing factor, and 1.15 for cooling sizing factor. Another thing to confirm is that you are running with the same design day files in Trace vs. OpenStudio. The difference on how the tools handle geometry could have an impact on sizing (but I wouldn't expect 1/3 off) due to that.

Just out of interest, do you seem similar differences in heating sizing?

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For Ideal Air Loads runs in OpenStudio outdoor air isn't included which will impact the heating and cooling loads vs. running with a full system. The first thought about differences between Trace results and your OpenStudio run with the full system could be a change in the Cooling sizing factor. By default OpenStudio uses 1.25 for heating sizing factor, and 1.15 for cooling sizing factor. Another thing to confirm is that you are running with the same design day files in Trace vs. OpenStudio. The difference on how the tools handle geometry could have an impact on sizing (but I wouldn't expect 1/3 off) due to that.

Just out of interest, do you seem see similar differences in heating sizing?