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Currently, I see only the option of an (approximate) EMS solution:

Starting with current heating load, one would have to calculate required air flow for the air-to-water heatpump. This however depends on performance curves of heatpump (depending on air side temperatures, and maybe also humidities as well as water side inlet and outlet temperatures). Now the temperature of the supply air will depend on how much exhaust airflow is available for mixing with outdoor air.

These kind of calculations are however not at all trivial. It would probably require to imitate EnergyPlus algorithms to achieve accurate results.

If someone can come up with better recommendations, you are welcome !