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I don't think measured data will support any one approach in particular. They are all fudges to cover unknowns. It would be more satisfying and useful to take a detailed approach based on the operation of each part of the plant. - temperature gains in chw pipes - temperature loss in hw pipes - air leakage from AHUs, supply ductwork - return air less than supply air by toilet exhaust fraction - temperature gains in condenser water pipework - AHU coil fouling And others no doubt. Looking at EnergyPlus fault models may help